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Visible Auroras

3-Day Forecast Issued: 2022 Nov 14 1230 UTC

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2022 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

NOAA Solar Radiation Activity

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 14-16 Nov. C.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2022
Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

NOAA Radio Blackout Activity

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Rationale: There is a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 14-16 Nov due to the flare potential of Regions 3140 and 3141.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2022
Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

NOAA Geomagnetic Forecast (Issued: 2022 Nov 14 2205 UTC)

Ap Index Forecast

Observed Ap 13 Nov 007

Estimated Ap 14 Nov 005

Predicted Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 010-010-005

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar

Active 30/30/20

Minor storm 10/10/01

Moderate storm 01/01/01

Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01

FAQ

How often is information updated?

The heatmap at the top of the page is live updates each time you refresh the page. All other data on the page including the tables are updated on 30min intervals.

What is the Kp-index?

The Kp-index is the global geomagnetic activity index that is based on 3-hour measurements from ground-based magnetometers around the world. Each station is calibrated according to its latitude and reports a certain K-indice depending on the geomagnetic activity measured at the location of the magnetometer. The K-index itself is a three hour long quasi-logarithmic local index of the geomagnetic activity at the given location and time compared to a calm day curve. A magnetometer measures the maximum deviation of the horizontal component of the magnetic field at its location and reports this. The global Kp-index is then determined with an algorithm that puts the reported K-values of every station together. The Kp-index ranges from 0 to 9 where a value of 0 means that there is very little geomagnetic activity and a value of 9 means extreme geomagnetic storming.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is a preliminary Kp-index derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using minute by minute data from a number of ground-based magnetometers that relay data in near-real time. These observatories are located in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Australia.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index gives us a quick indication of the strongest observed geomagnetic activity over a 3-hour period. These periods are: 0000-0300 UTC, 0300-0600 UTC, etc. The maximum positive and negative deviations during the 3-hour period are added together to determine the total maximum fluctuation. These maximum deviations may occur anytime during the 3-hour period. During periods with high geomagnetic activity, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center will send out alerts based on this near-real time minute by minute data as soon as a certain alert threshold (Kp4 or higher) has been reached. The image below shows a plot of the Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index from October 2003 with 3 days of intense geomagnetic storming.

Kp Kp in decimals G-scale Auroral Activity
0o 0,00 G0 Quiet
0+ 0,33 G0 Quiet
1- 0,67 G0 Quiet
1o 1,00 G0 Quiet
1+ 1,33 G0 Quiet
2- 1,67 G0 Quiet
2o 2,00 G0 Quiet
2+ 2,33 G0 Quiet
3- 2,67 G0 Unsettled
3o 3,00 G0 Unsettled
3+ 3,33 G0 Unsettled
4- 3,67 G0 Active
4o 4,00 G0 Active
4+ 4,33 G0 Active
5- 4,67 G1 Minor storm
5o 5,00 G1 Minor storm
5+ 5,33 G1 Minor storm
6- 5,67 G2 Moderate storm
6o 6,00 G2 Moderate storm
6+ 6,33 G2 Moderate storm
7- 6,67 G3 Strong storm
7o 7,00 G3 Strong storm
7+ 7,33 G3 Strong storm
8- 7,67 G4 Severe storm
8o 8,00 G4 Severe storm
8+ 8,33 G4 Severe storm
9- 8,67 G4 Severe storm
9o 9,00 G5 Extreme storm

API

Current Kp level now

Fetches the current global kp level

$ curl https://auroraforecast.space/api/kp/now
3

Kp Levels 3-Day forecast graph

Fetches timeframes and corresponding global kp levels for the timeframe.

$ curl https://auroraforecast.space/api/kp/forecast
{"x": ["Aug 01 00-03", "Aug 01 03-06", "Aug 01 06-09", "Aug 01 09-12", "Aug 01 12-15", "Aug 01 15-18", "Aug 01 18-21", "Aug 01 21-00", "Aug 02 00-03", "Aug 02 03-06", "Aug 02 06-09", "Aug 02 09-12", "Aug 02 12-15", "Aug 02 15-18", "Aug 02 18-21", "Aug 02 21-00", "Aug 03 00-03", "Aug 03 03-06", "Aug 03 06-09", "Aug 03 09-12", "Aug 03 12-15", "Aug 03 15-18", "Aug 03 18-21", "Aug 03 21-00"], "y": [3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3]}